AFEX Market Watch Mon Dec 19th

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Monday Dec 19 • 09:00 EUR German IFO business climate • 12:30 AUD MPC meeting minutes • 03:00 JPY BOJ policy rate & statement

Tuesday Dec 20

· 14:15 NZD GDT Milk auction

Wednesday Dec 21

· 15:30 USD Crude oil inventories

· 21:45 NZD GDP QoQ

Thursday Dec 22

· 13:30 CAD Core CPI MoM

· 13:30 CAD Core retail sales MoM

· 13:30 USD Core durable goods

· 13:30 USD Final GDP QoQ

Friday Dec 23

· 09:30 GBP Current account

· 09:30 GBP Final GDP QoQ

· 13:30 CAD GDP MoM

GBP - Sterling

GBPUD lost ground last week whilst treading water against the Euro. The US Dollar was supported by interest rate differentials with the grey Brexit cloud still hanging over sterling.

UK employment data was mixed with average earnings pushing higher to 2.5% on a quarterly basis, but a poor revision to the October number of unemployment claimants which jumped to 13.3k. Theresa May the UK Prime Minister has even more than Brexit to contend with in the near future as the rail, airline and post office either continue or threaten strike action. Added to this is the news that Stephen Dorrell former UK Health Secretary intends to create a campaign to explicitly reject the June 23^rd Brexit vote. The week to come precedes Christmas so will not have full market participation and it will be possible for some volatility spikes with the release of final GDP on Friday.

EUR - Euro

The backdrop to the single currency was negative last week as the Italian banking crisis rumbled on and the interest rate differential between the Euro and US Dollar continued to widen. German ZEW economic sentiment held steady at 13.8 but there was little else released. The Euro’s decline accelerated on Wednesday evening after the Fed rate hike and Thursday saw a new 14 year low for EURUSD. We again have little economic data due for release this week, but the market is being driven by sentiment and interest rates at the moment so further declines would not surprise.

USD - Dollar

The market expected a 25 bps rate hike and a forecast of 2 rate hikes next year. When the Fed announced 25 bps hike and a promise of 3 rate hikes in 2017, the US dollar bounded higher with the US Dollar index hitting levels not seen since 2002. As the Fed has set the stall out for rate hikes next year and the market is expecting Trump stimulus at the same time, Dollar bulls are set fair for the medium term. The US Electoral College confirms the US election today and US durable goods and final GDP is due for release on Thursday.

Commonwealth et al

The Commonwealth currencies all lost ground to the Dollar and to varying degrees against the Pound. The Yen weakened aggressively again in advance of the BOJ meeting tonight, in this post US election new paradigm safe haven trades are losing their lustre. Hence the Yen and gold have both had large drops in value.

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