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Market Watch - Monday 09 Jan 2017
Today's key data • GBP Halifax HPI MoM See key data for this week
The Pound had a generally positive week last week as the economic data was pleasing. Household borrowing grew at the fastest annual rate for more than 11 years as positive sentiment was maintained in the U.K. economy. UK PMI data readings were all above expectations and the pound managed to gain a touch on the week against the Dollar, before the US Non-farm payrolls data on Friday afternoon pushed GBPUSD lower. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will today outline her vision for a shared society, but the market will really be looking forward to her speech next week (Tuesday) on her plans for Brexit. The market will look to UK manufacturing production and trade balance on Wednesday for direction this week.
Last week saw positive Eurozone data with CPI (consumer price index) pushing higher to 1.1%. and Although Eurozone retail sales MoM fell -0.4%, the European Commission’s monthly survey of economic sentiment in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose for the fourth month in December to 107.8, apparently boosted by rising optimism in France, Germany and the Netherlands. As a figure of 106.8 was expected and well above the long term average reading of 100, the data was certainly positive. The main economic data point from the Eurozone this week will be last month’s ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.
The first week of the New Year saw the US Dollar run into profit taking sellers. President elect Trump tweeted at almost any and all car manufacturers daring to consider building a plant in Mexico, and a non-farm payrolls number that missed the headline figure but still attracted Dollar strength as the average hourly wage earnings grew to 2.9% YoY. All in all encouraging the market to think that the Fed may well have to raise rates three times this year. This week sees US banking stocks quarterly results which could be influential on the US Dollar value. There's been a correlation recently between US stocks and the US$, both strengthening in tandem with each other. This has left the Dow Jones poised to break through the psychologically important 20k mark, and if the results from US banks are good then the Dollar could be poised to strengthen again. President elect Trump has his first press conference on Wednesday and given his track record that could well be an interesting one.
Commonwealth et al
After a generally positive week for the commonwealth currencies, the main data point this week will be Australian retail sales due on Tuesday. The Canadian data was positive as well last Friday with 53.7k jobs added to the economy last month and nicely above expectations of a drop of 5.1k.
Japan is on holiday today and China releases CPI on Tuesday and trade data on Friday.