Information on security and political risks which UK businesses may face when operating in Belarus.

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Overseas business risk for Belarus

Political and economic context

POLITICAL

Belarus, with a population of 9.2m, is bordered by Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Russia. It was a republic of the Soviet Union until it gained independence in 1991. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and is Belarus’ first and only directly elected president. Since coming to power, Lukashenko has consolidated his rule over all institutions.

Belarus, with a population of 9.2m, is bordered by Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and Russia. It was a republic of the Soviet Union until it gained independence in 1991. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and is Belarus’ first and only directly elected president. Since coming to power, Lukashenko has consolidated his rule over all institutions.

All subsequent Presidential elections in Belarus have fallen short of international standards. The most recent Presidential election, in August 2020, was widely viewed as fraudulent, and led to mass protests. The UK and a number of other countries have not recognised the results of this election as valid. We have called on the Belarusian regime to organise new elections in line with international standards and under the monitoring of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The regime’s brutal crackdown of the post-election protests led to the imposition of sanctions – both sectoral and individual - by the UK, EU, US, Canada, and other international partners (see Sanctions section of this OBR).

Other significant political developments include the forced diversion to Minsk of Ryanair flight FR 4978 in May 2021 and the removal and arrest of a Belarusian dissident and his partner travelling on board the aircraft. In July 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) found this to be an act of unlawful interference with civil air traffic that endangered the safety of the aircraft, its passengers and crew and contravened Belarus’ obligations under the Chicago and Montreal conventions to which it is State Party. From mid to late 2021, the regime facilitated the mass entry of foreign nationals into Belarus in order to engineer a migration crisis intended to impact upon the neighbouring countries of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

In February 2022 the Russian Federation launched its illegal invasion of Ukraine partially from Belarusian territory. Although Belarus has not committed its own armed forces in support of the invasion, the Belarusian regime is nevertheless facilitating Russian military operations. Apart from having permitted the use of Belarusian airspace, territory, and infrastructure by Russian forces to conduct offensive air and land operations against Ukraine, it continues to provide other support to Russian forces. Belarusian infrastructure such as the rail and road networks have been used to transport Russian military personnel and equipment. Injured Russian military personnel have been treated in Belarusian hospitals. Entities owned or controlled by the Belarusian regime have provided logistical support to Russian military forces based in Belarus. The Belarusian regime’s security and intelligence apparatus have identified, repressed, and arrested individuals in Belarus who have criticised Belarus’ support for Russian actions in Ukraine.

In response to Belarus’ support for the illegal invasion and its repression of opposition to the war, the UK and other close allies have imposed further sanctions on Belarus.

Following the failed mutiny by the Russian Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner in June 2023, the Belarusian regime permitted the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus. In March 2023, Russia also announced it would forward base Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus.

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