AFEX Market Watch Mon 22nd August

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Mon Aug 22 • No first tier data Tues Aug 23 • 07:00 CHF Trade balance • 11:00 GBP CBI industrial order expectations

Wed Aug 24

· 09:30 GBP BBA Mortgage approvals

· 15:30 USD Crude oil inventories

Thu Aug 25

· 09:00 EUR German IFO business climate

· 11:00 GBP CBI realized sales

· 13:30 USD Core Durable goods M/M

· 13:30 USD Unemployment claims

Fri Aug 26

· 00:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole symposium

· 09:30 GBP Second estimate GDP Q/Q

· 09:30 GBP Prelim business investment Q/Q

· 13:30 USD Prelim GDP Q/Q

Sterling

At the start of this week sterling was under pressure in anticipation of the first releases of poor economic data since June 23^rd. By the end of the week GBPUSD had gained 2% after CPI had gained 0.6% average earnings had posted a healthy 2.4% rise and the Great British consumer had gone shopping and increased retail sales by 1.4% in July. However, the UK still has no Brexit plan and the City is preparing itself for a new relationship with the EU which will probably not include universal access to the single market. The week to come is quite light on data so CBI readings will be inspected and Friday’s GDP second estimate is the most important data point for the Pound.

Euro

The Euro made gains last week on the back of other currencies weakness. The US and Australian Dollars took a step lower for different reasons but pushed the Euro higher.

Dollar

The FOMC minutes showed a Federal Reserve that comprised differing views about US interest rates and as such the chances of a September rate hike slipped again despite some hawkish comments from NY Fed Dudley. The main talking point for the Dollar will be Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium with the market looking for more clues on interest rates.

Commonwealth et al

An excellent example of jawboning saw Saudi Arabia talk the oil price higher with vague promises of agreements to limit production by Opec whilst increasing production to all-time highs themselves. The main beneficiary was the Loonie and it is set to stay firm as long as oil does as well.

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My contact details are below if you are interested in discussing in more detail regarding this week’s events or to open a free business account with AFEX.

Richard Torres