AFEX Market Watch Mon 10th October

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Monday Oct 10th • All Day USD and CAD bank holiday • 19:01 GBP BRC retail sales

Tuesday Oct 11^th

• 10:00 EUR German ZEW economic sentiment

Wednesday Oct 12^th

• 10:00 CHF ZEW economic expectations
• 13:00 USD FOMC Dudley
• 19:00 USD FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday Oct 13^th

• 00:00 CNY Trade balance
• 13:30 USD Unemployment claims
• 16:00 USD Crude oil inventories

Friday Oct 14^th

• 13:30 USD Core retail sales MoM
• 13:30 USD PPI MoM
• 13:30 USD Retail sales MoM
• 15:00 USD Prelim Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment
• 18:30 USD Fed Chair Yellen speaks

Sterling

Last week saw positive UK Purchasing Managers Index data but more of an idea about what Brexit will look like. At the moment Brexit looks like it will be a hard one with the Govt. confirming that a cap on immigration is their primary aim. If this is the case the EU has stated on many occasions that the UK will not get unfettered access to the single market and as such in all probability there will be a dip in the UK’s economic performance. This view is exacerbated by the fact that we are some 30 months away from actually leaving the EU, so we have 30 months of uncertainty. Last Friday’s flash crash pointed to a sterling market that is not only expecting negative news in the future but one that is now worried about its ability to cope with increasing volatility. Today the British Chambers of Commerce said UK business investment hit a 4 year low in Q3 2016. There are minimal economic data releases for the UK this week but with the banking community suggesting that a third of its bankers will need to be moved from the UK if a hard Brexit is delivered and parliament suggesting that they will oppose the Govt. over its right to take Brexit decisions alone there is a lot of uncertainty on the horizon for the UK economy.

Euro

The week started with the Euro strengthening on rumours of the ECB tapering its asset purchasesand finished with Vitas Vasiliauskas a member of the ECB’s Governing council denying that the Governing council had discussed this. The Euro did initially slip against the Dollar whilst following the pound lower but as is usual at the moment it managed to bounce again over the week. This left it stronger against the Pound and the Commonwealth countries and of course range bound against the Dollar. SNB Chairman Jordan has been talking this morning saying that they could cut Swiss rates even more if necessary.

Dollar

US economic data was good last week, especially the ISM non manufacturing number for September which leapt to a very healthy 57.1. The US jobs data was uninspiring with 156k new jobs added to the US economy in September the market still has concerns that the Fed will not raise rates this year. The US is on holiday today but the second US Presidential debate and revelations about Donald Trump’s behaviour and views towards women are pushing him further behind Hillary Clinton. He managed to threaten Clinton with jail if he became President and this has left most US commentators aghast. In democracies do victors get to jail their defeated foes? As the markets price in a Clinton victory this helps commonwealth currencies and the Mexican peso strengthen.

Commonwealth et al

Commonwealth currencies had a mixed 5 days. Weakening against the Greenback but of course strengthening against the Pound. They did get a push higher after oil managed to gain in the early part of last week but gave back gains after oil fell on Friday and the US jobs news was reported. Canada is on holiday today and there are not a lot of important economic releases this week so FX could follow the oil price this week.

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